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Beijing
The International Monetary Fund’s chief warned on Thursday that trade tensions and resulting uncertainties could shave off 0.8 per cent of global gross domestic product (GDP) by next year.
The global economy is in a “synchronized slowdown,” Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the IMF, said at the end of a roundtable discussion with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and the heads of five other international organizations in Beijing.
Ninety per cent of the world’s GDP is slowing compared with last year. In contrast, 75 per cent of the world’s GDP was increasing just two years ago, before the start of the US-China trade war, Georgieva said.
While a variety of factors have contributed to the slowdown, key among them are the trade tensions and resulting uncertainties, she said.
The IMF expects China’s economy to grow 6.1 per cent this year and slip below the 6-per-cent mark next year.
The world’s second-largest economy slowed to 6 per cent growth in the third quarter of the year - its slowest pace in almost three decades - under pressure from rising debt and the trade war with the United States.
Washington and Beijing have been negotiating a truce in their trade war, but talks appear to have reached an impasse in recent weeks. The two sides cannot agree on the extent to which tariffs would be rolled back in the event of a deal.
The Chinese Commerce Ministry said earlier this month some tariffs would be rolled back as part of the “phase one” of a trade deal, but US President Donald Trump later denied agreeing to a rollback and instead threatened to further raise tariffs against China if no deal was reached.
“We are all hoping for that deal between the United States and China on the ‘phase one’,” said Angel Gurria, Secretary-General of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Gurria said global trade was “moving practically towards a standstill in terms of growth” against the background of uncertainty created by the trade war.
“Uncertainty is the worst enemy of growth,” he said.
Li promised China would keep its macroeconomic policies stable, reduce interest rates to better support the real economy and create a level-playing field for Chinese and foreign firms.
“China will keep to its opening-up policy and open wider,” Li said.
China’s reduced market access for foreign firms in sectors deemed key by Beijing, such as aeronautics and financial services, has been at the top of Washington’s list of concerns, along with alleged forced technology transfers and Beijing’s support for state-owned enterprises.
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22/11/2019
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